Lockdown on TMBF!

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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by Snod Blatter » Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:10 pm

'Rona stats for UK for anyone interested, especially since the media seemed to stop reporting it weeks ago.

Looking at it you'd think it's basically over, but there are people scurrying about in the background preparing for a second wave. What do they know that we don't?
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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by RantMachine » Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:57 am

Snod Blatter wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:10 pm
'Rona stats for UK for anyone interested, especially since the media seemed to stop reporting it weeks ago.

Looking at it you'd think it's basically over, but there are people scurrying about in the background preparing for a second wave. What do they know that we don't?
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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by Mississippi Bullfrog » Wed Jun 10, 2020 7:22 am

RantMachine wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:57 am
Snod Blatter wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 10:10 pm
'Rona stats for UK for anyone interested, especially since the media seemed to stop reporting it weeks ago.

Looking at it you'd think it's basically over, but there are people scurrying about in the background preparing for a second wave. What do they know that we don't?
Rookie.jpg
In the north west the R level is above 1. I know local crematoria are making preparations for an upswing, but hopefully it won't happen. I guess it depends how many people have had it without being counted. My hunch it was here earlier and more people have been previously exposed to it. But there are a lot of older folks who have literally not left the house and if they all come out at once things might be different.
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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by S-Westerly » Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:31 am

My 89 year old dad up in Northumberland is thinking of joining (starting) a BLM protest in Morpeth High Street as apparently you are immune to Covid 19 if you are woke enough. My 86 year old mum reckons he's mad and definitely not woke. Personally I think Covid has driven him mad.
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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by RantMachine » Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:35 am

Bollocks to COVID and bollocks to Woke, not wanting to be shot or deported is all the motivation I need to not go to any protests.
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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by dynax » Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:39 am

RantMachine wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 8:35 am
Bollocks to COVID and bollocks to Woke, not wanting to be shot or deported is all the motivation I need to not go to any protests.
I'll protest from home while i'm watching tv or web surfing :lol: :thumb:
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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by Mawsley » Wed Jun 10, 2020 3:18 pm

XTreme wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 6:55 am
I've done a few abandoned villages, one abandoned railway station.......and hopefully this weekend an abandoned mining village!
Do you give them advanced notice you're on your way? :scratch:
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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by Snod Blatter » Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:52 pm

RantMachine wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:57 am
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I think we're making the best of what we've got, tyvm!

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:booty:
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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by RantMachine » Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:42 am

Snod Blatter wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 11:52 pm
RantMachine wrote:
Wed Jun 10, 2020 4:57 am
Rookie.jpg
I think we're making the best of what we've got, tyvm!

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:booty:
Yikes! Yep, the UK is showing the US how it's done :shock:
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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by James in Brum » Thu Jun 11, 2020 5:52 am

S-Westerly wrote:
Tue Jun 09, 2020 9:55 pm
Trouble is nobody and I mean nobody really has a f**king clue about this virus. For every expert opinion there's an equally expert opposite opinion. So in the end we're either all f**ked or we aren't. Roll a dice, pick a card it's as likely to be as "true" as anything coming out of any government officials gob anywhere in the world.
I think there has been very little disagreement amongst the experts that I have witnessed. There has been a lot of opposite advice but it seems that the what is known has been reasonably consistent and that what has been predicted has been happening.

The questions of whether the interventions are worth it is not a scientific one but a value based political one. I’d like to see an analysis of the epidemic based around the season of the country, have those countries that have been in their spring summer faired better and then as their winter arrives it picks up again?

I am also intrigued to see the results of the antibody testing now being rolled out in the NhS worked population. There is some idea in some research that there have been a lot of people spreading it without having symptoms. It may be that many many more people have had it than we currently realise which may now be affecting the infection rate.

Whether the harm to the economy is worth it is a personal decision, I think it is easier to think it is not worth it if the only impact we experience is the restriction.
A lot of people have died and a lot of people have been very ill.
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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by S-Westerly » Thu Jun 11, 2020 10:52 am

This is true but... For example the idea it does less well in warmer weather doesn't seem to hold true for Brazil which is pretty darned warm at any time and is now being ravaged. I agree that lockdown has probably reduced infection rates but at what cost? Data (pretty cold blooded) out today indicates that many of the fatalities may well have died later this year anyway. Have we saved people in the longer term if you take into account all the non- Covid deaths which could have been avoided had the nation tried a different route through the plague. Unfortunately there's no way to quantify this and a lot of the modelling used is apparently quite suspect. I like most of us am a mushroom - fed on shit and kept in the dark.
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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by onesea » Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:10 pm

@S-Westerly
Country with slums and high density populations are not going to have good outcomes.

As with you I would love to know how many lives have been extended/ shortened and by how much...
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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by S-Westerly » Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:29 pm

onesea wrote:
Thu Jun 11, 2020 12:10 pm
@S-Westerly
Country with slums and high density populations are not going to have good outcomes.

As with you I would love to know how many lives have been extended/ shortened and by how much...
Absolutely and throw in a high level of corruption and no go areas in the favelas and it's a recipe for a very medieval disaster. Does show that the virus isn't apparently that susceptible to temperature though. Tropical Brazil, winter with snow during the early days of the outbreak in China etc. all with high levels of transmission.
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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by onesea » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:10 pm

@S-Westerly I don't know relatively high population density. So it doesn't need to survive that long before it can find a new host?

Could also be particular humidity or/ and temperature combinations, that allow it to survive outside the host for longer than others.

All speculation.
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Re: Lockdown on TMBF!

Post by James in Brum » Thu Jun 11, 2020 2:45 pm

Too many variables to discern any confidence in our assumptions.
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