coronavirus....

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James in Brum
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Re: coronavirus....

Post by James in Brum » Sat Sep 12, 2020 7:27 am

bonio wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 11:37 pm
James in Brum wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 7:50 pm
I think they don’t want the tests. Without tests it is a lot of people choosing to isolate in response to advice ‘to be sure and safe’
With tests it is evidence of climbing numbers in the population and evidence to prove a rising R and that heir strategy is a crock.
The pressure that schools and health providers are on to be open or be more open right now belies sense.
If you're right then they must be completely incompetent. Despite trying their best to keep the test count down, they've actually seen them rise from around 3000 a day to almost 300,000. An omnishambles.
Feom what I can gather from the government statistic website the number of tests is much lowe that that. The three hundred housing includes antigen testing which is not what is needed for the test and trace and communication management. Propped swab tests aiming to answer ‘have I got it’ is nearer 200,000 in the whole uk at the start of this week. I wonder what the number is for the end of the week because there were none available in Birmingham and surrounding areas.
The 200k (uk wide) is not a massive raise day on day,
There were sixty thousand tests done in England per day in the start of the week, looks like almost none in the last day or so.
Regarding three thousand a day it’s been much higher that that since before mid April according to their site.
Source
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing

Given that there are 11.7million school age children in the England, each of whom must have 1 more member of their household so 23.4 million people as a guess (some multi children single parent families some 2 and 2 and so on so is an innacurate number but useful for thinking I think) incidence in England of 19.7 per 1000 people (https://assets.publishing.service.gov.u ... _FINAL.pdf) the number of tests needed to test people likely to have it would be 24 million x 2 % which is 480,000.
According to the daily mail 5 days ago (I won’t link it showed up on google) 2.5 percent of tests that are taken are positive. So at current rates we would need about 25millon tests to find those in the school going family population that have it.

I would welcome some arguming against my workings here.
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bonio
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Re: coronavirus....

Post by bonio » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:38 am

@James in Brum
Really sorry for your situation at home - I can't imagine the frustration of trying to keep at work while children are being sent home with a sniffle. I hope she's soon better.
And sorry my figures were out - I was quoting them from rough memory - and my memory is pretty rough.
So here are the real figures (taken from the source you gave) for the number PCR tests per day (in blue) from April to September
Image
This shows a steady increase of about 100 times in a few months. I can't get my head to match this graph the idea that the policy is to keep testing as low as possible.
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Re: coronavirus....

Post by MarkW » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:49 am

No exemption to the 6 people rule for the under 12s, except for when they're at school of course, which as we know is perfectly safe: :D

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-54129158? ... ting-story

Still, all par for the course I guess in the current clueless climate. Like bloody stupid one-way systems in shops, which far from reducing transmission rates probably increase them because you have to shuffle around the whole f*cking place to get something you could previously just have nipped in for, and if you need to go back for something in an aisle you've just gone past you have to traipse round the whole sodding place again.

Then there are gents toilets (was there ever a place less in need of additional social distancing measures?) where every other f*cking urinal, sink and hand drier has been taped off, with the result that the places are now crowded with people waiting to use them when previously they weren't.

And then there's the rabid hysteria among the general public, who seem to think that any incursion into their 2 metre bubble is tantamount to attempted murder. I was on holiday in Dorset a couple of weeks ago, waiting to use a cash machine behind a 50-something local mutant in full face shield and latex gloves. Despite being well over 2 metres away from her she turned to me and snapped a number of retarded unpleasantries with no provocation, including demanding to know why I was standing so close to her when there was plenty of room way down at the other end of the road, and suggesting it was high time 'my lot' (tourists) went home. I asked her if they preferred to stick to their own down there ("When the Tourist Board says Dorset is coming into its own they mean it, don't they?") and then followed up by asking if having webbed fingers made it harder to play the banjo. She made some further inarticulate noises as what passed for her brain started to struggle and then ground to a halt entirely, before waddling off in a foul mood.

:lol:
Last edited by MarkW on Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:54 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: coronavirus....

Post by bonio » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:51 am

It's interesting is to compare this graph of tests per day
Image

with this one of cases per day
Image

Because from the beginning of June to the beginning of September, they follow the same kind of line. In other words, the number of cases reported rose in line with the number of test being carried out.
But this all changed around the beginning of September. Since then, the number of cases has risen faster than any increase in testing. There's not enough information here to know whether it's the return to school, or people returning from holidays abroad, or what. But something has changed and the thing is back on the increase.
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Re: coronavirus....

Post by James in Brum » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:36 am

bonio wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:38 am
@James in Brum
Really sorry for your situation at home - I can't imagine the frustration of trying to keep at work while children are being sent home with a sniffle. I hope she's soon better.
And sorry my figures were out - I was quoting them from rough memory - and my memory is pretty rough.
So here are the real figures (taken from the source you gave) for the number PCR tests per day (in blue) from April to September
Image
This shows a steady increase of about 100 times in a few months. I can't get my head to match this graph the idea that the policy is to keep testing as low as possible.
Hi :-) thanks for the compassion. You are probably right that it is not an intentional holding back. Never put down to malice what you can put down to incompetence.
When I drilled down into the figures to look at the type of test that looks to see if someone has got it (because four different types of testing are reported there) I got 60,000 a day in England.
Given that the school openings have been a fixed plan for a couple of months I am surprised that the level of available tests have not been dramatically increased to account for projected demand increase.
Situation a home is no bother, I’m not worried about our health, we have food available, people around and I can work from home. It’s just annoying :-)
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Re: coronavirus....

Post by James in Brum » Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:38 am

1DF922C2-E613-4EEF-97BF-2C6B139D94D4.jpeg
Letter from my daughter that we have posted to the test processing centre :-)
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Re: coronavirus....

Post by bonio » Sat Sep 12, 2020 12:44 pm

What a cute letter!
I'm really lucky - no kids at home, so not having to juggle things around for them! I can imagine that some people are finding it really hard.
James in Brum wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:36 am
You are probably right that it is not an intentional holding back. Never put down to malice what you can put down to incompetence.
lol. I make myself repeat this several times a day at work.
James in Brum wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 11:36 am
When I drilled down into the figures to look at the type of test that looks to see if someone has got it (because four different types of testing are reported there) I got 60,000 a day in England.
Not sure where that came from? The tests that show whether you have the virus or not are called "Pillar 1 & 2" in the govt stats. The figures currently show over 200,000 tests a day being carried out right now, with all-out capacity at around 240k a day.

I was chatting last week to a friend who was seconded to the Dept of Health back on March to work on test provisioning; they said that they're currently working flat-out to increase capacity dramatically over the next three months. Let's hope they do it. :D
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Re: coronavirus....

Post by James in Brum » Sat Sep 12, 2020 1:03 pm

Pilar one and two in England was 60,000 I though. I thought 1,2,3 and 4 was 200,000.
I’m knackered though and cannot see the wood for the trees. How I feel about the whole thing could be clouding my ability to make sense of it all.
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Re: coronavirus....

Post by winston smith » Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:55 pm

MarkW wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:02 pm
Mr Fro wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:16 pm
Mate, I told you months ago that I'd be happy to help you out with kit if needed.

I could have very easily sorted you half a dozen or so of the finest whirlygigs the 1990's had to offer. :lol:
Ha! I still haven't forgiven you for flogging that water purifier! :wink:

I can't make any sense of the PHE strategy: it's like trying to decide if a garage is competent to service your car by relentlessly asking them how many spanners they've got. :lol:

Looking in from the outside it seems to me that whoever's in control of decision making is deliberately frustrating every company/lab/contractor with an interest to muddy the waters and hide reality that contracts will go to buddies, govt supporters and those passing envelopes full of cash/favours under the table.

I'd like to be proved wrong, but do many reports of help offered, but declined in favour of another organization charging £millions.

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Re: coronavirus....

Post by Six30 » Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:38 am

Rule of Six ... as from tomorrow, im in charge .
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The rule of Six.

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Re: coronavirus....

Post by XTreme » Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:44 am

winston smith wrote:
Sat Sep 12, 2020 10:55 pm
MarkW wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 5:02 pm
Mr Fro wrote:
Fri Sep 11, 2020 4:16 pm
Mate, I told you months ago that I'd be happy to help you out with kit if needed.

I could have very easily sorted you half a dozen or so of the finest whirlygigs the 1990's had to offer. :lol:
Ha! I still haven't forgiven you for flogging that water purifier! :wink:

I can't make any sense of the PHE strategy: it's like trying to decide if a garage is competent to service your car by relentlessly asking them how many spanners they've got. :lol:

Looking in from the outside it seems to me that whoever's in control of decision making is deliberately frustrating every company/lab/contractor with an interest to muddy the waters and hide reality that contracts will go to buddies, govt supporters and those passing envelopes full of cash/favours under the table.
Nothing new for the Tories.....but now they're doing it in plain sight.

Except for the delicate matters that have super injunctions put on them so the British press can't report it.

But what is new is they're now giving peerages to sons of KGB agents and IRA sympathisers!

Apparently people knew what they were voting for though.
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Re: coronavirus....

Post by S-Westerly » Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:55 am

I think you can substitute all political parties for Tories there. The last time Liebour were in power cronyism was rampant as well. Seems to be part of the political arena these days although I reckon it always has been just in the past the plebs were more subservient and didn't make waves. Of course these days we make a hue and a cry but sweet FA ever seems to change. Your neck of the woods is notorious for it as well XT.
Back in the blue. No bikes.....

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Re: coronavirus....

Post by XTreme » Sun Sep 13, 2020 8:49 am

S-Westerly wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:55 am
I think you can substitute all political parties for Tories there. The last time Liebour were in power cronyism was rampant as well. Seems to be part of the political arena these days although I reckon it always has been just in the past the plebs were more subservient and didn't make waves. Of course these days we make a hue and a cry but sweet FA ever seems to change. Your neck of the woods is notorious for it as well XT.
Yeh......but now it's more difficult for them to keep a lid on it.

But even when they're caught out with behaviour that would see them instantly dismissed from any other job.......nothing happens as you say.

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Re: coronavirus....

Post by Tiggie » Sun Sep 13, 2020 9:20 am

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Re: coronavirus....

Post by winston smith » Sun Sep 13, 2020 1:22 pm

S-Westerly wrote:
Sun Sep 13, 2020 7:55 am
I think you can substitute all political parties for Tories there. The last time Liebour were in power cronyism was rampant as well. Seems to be part of the political arena these days although I reckon it always has been just in the past the plebs were more subservient and didn't make waves. Of course these days we make a hue and a cry but sweet FA ever seems to change. Your neck of the woods is notorious for it as well XT.
Yes! I wasn't particularly having a pop at the current govt....I think they are all full of corruption at every level, in every country, all the way from local/parish counsels right up to the top. Has been this way for years, but I think the mid/lower level malcontents are now more willing to sell out their bosses to the ever-sleazy MSM, and the technology to catch people out is no longer James bond gadgets - it's right there on eBay

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